I am Guilherme Duarte (pronounced Gheel-YER-me). I am currently a Postdoctoral Researcher in the Department of Government at Harvard University and will join the faculty as an Assistant Professor effective July 2026.
I hold a Ph.D. from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania (2025).
My primary research interests include causal inference and machine learning. I have developed general algorithms for partial identification and also investigated issues related to sensitivity analysis, transportability, factorial experiments, and causal inference automation. In the past, I have worked in journalism and data science.
My work has received a Pulitzer Prize for Explanatory Reporting (2017), a Society for Political Methodology Best Poster Award (2023), a Society for Causal Inference Tom Ten Have Award (2024), and a Society for Political Methodology John T. Williams Dissertation Prize (2024).
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Peer-Reviewed Articles
Guilherme Duarte, Noam Finkelstein, Dean Knox, Jonathan Mummolo, and Ilya Shpitser. 2023. "An Automated Approach to Causal Inference in Discrete Settings" Journal of the American Statistical Association. (Theory & Methods).
Robert Myles McDonnell, Guilherme Jardim Duarte, Danilo Freire. 2019. "congressbr: An R Package for Analysing Data from Brazil’s Chamber of Deputies and Federal Senate." Latin American Research Review. (Research note)
Job Market Paper
Guilherme Duarte. 2024. "A Unified Approach for Assessing Sensitivity to Violations of Causal Assumptions."
Submitted
Guilherme Duarte. 2024. "Identification of Single-Treatment Effects from Factorial Experiments."
Kai Cooper, Guilherme Duarte, Luke Keele, Dean Knox, and Jonathan Mummolo. 2022. "Learning From Imperfect Research Designs: Automating Causal Inference When Classic Assumptions Fail".
In Progress
Guilherme Duarte. 2026. "Sharp Bounds for Treatment Effects in Proximal Causal Inference".
Kai Cooper, Guilherme Duarte, Luke Keele, Dean Knox, Kennedy Mattes, Jonathan Mummolo. 2024. "Evaluating the Validity and Robustness of Instrumental-Variable Analyses."
Guilherme Duarte. 2024. "Fast Algorithm for Closed-form Partial Identification."
Guilherme Duarte, and Dean Knox. 2023. "Imperfect Data and Optimal Allocation of Data-Collection Resources".
Guilherme Duarte. 2023. "A General Framework For Transportability".